Washington Update - April 20
The first votes in the 2026 mid-term elections will be cast in 151 days, suggesting some urgency for candidates to make the case for staying the course or voting for change.
Mid-term elections almost always result in congressional losses for the party that controls the White House, portending a Democratic majority in the House and a smaller Republican Senate majority. Democrats in Congress are united on making the election a referendum on President Trump’s leadership. Among Republicans, moderate pragmatists are fighting with conservative hard-liners on election messaging.
President Donald Trump’s political capital, measured by his job approval, is an important factor. His approval ratings have eroded in the wake of the Iran War, but is holding steady around 40 percent, thanks to resilient Republican support. Among independents, his approval is down to nearly 30 percent.
The most important factor in the President’s loss of support is persistent inflation made worse by the war on Iran. Other factors include immigration enforcement and sacrilegious statements. The President’s contradictory, exaggerated claims about the war and the economy add to voter frustration.
President Trump is aware of his problem and is seeking to improve his standing by pointing to the benefits of his tax policies, but reversing voters’ sense of economic gloom seems unlikely until the war ends, inflation is tamed and economic growth improves.
Congress faces a growing list of problems: the war and inflation, the DHS shutdown, housing, appropriations, and government surveillance – all made more contentious by congressional scandals. Two Representatives resigned last week as a result of outrageous sexual behavior.
Catholics and evangelicals were important to the Trump coalition that prevailed in 2024. Keeping them in the coalition for 2026 is complicated by the President’s impious attacks on Pope Leo XIV, the first American-born pope, and posting images of himself as a Christ-like figure.
