Washington Update - August 10
The Senate adjourned Saturday morning for the August recess to return September 14. In the session’s closing hours, Senators evidenced function and dysfunction, approving bipartisan sanctions on Russia, interim government funding through December and confirming Todd Blanche to be Attorney General. They postponed major agenda items to the 3-week September session, including a budget resolution to unlock another partisan reconciliation bill, legislation limiting voter registration and mail ballots, a cryptocurrency initiative, and a bill to reform college football.
Election-year September sessions are unusually minimally productive, with elected officials posturing for the November vote. The current Congress, with Republican majorities and control of the Executive Branch, has been only nominally more prolific than the prior divided government. Significant achievements on Republican agenda items are unlikely, adding to the frustration of Republican voters.
Primaries last week continued a trend of incumbent losses, reflecting voter discontent in both parties. Nine Representatives have lost primaries, the most in a non-redistricting year since 1970. Two incumbent Senators have lost renomination. Sixty-two Representatives and 11 Senators chose not to seek re-election. In state legislative races, 137 incumbents have lost to primary challengers.
Discontent is also rising in some non-incumbent primaries, with Democrats choosing very liberal candidates and Republicans nominating more MAGA-aligned candidates, both less likely to prevail in swing district general elections.
The economy is showing new signs of weakness with employment falling and wage growth slipping below inflation. Hostilities in the U.S.-Israel war with Iran eased last week as Iran and Oman sought to conclude an agreement on re-opening the Strait of Hormuz under mutual control. Both suggest continued headwinds for Republican candidates but also argue for greater Federal Reserve caution in potential interest rate increases.
President Donald Trump revived two issues on which the Supreme Court has ruled against his initiatives: restricting birthright citizenship and firing Federal Reserve governors. Legal challenges are sure to follow.
