Washington Update - October 5

After passing legislation to regulate college sports, the Senate adjourned last week. Congress will reconvene the Monday following the November 3 election.

The election outlook seems to darken for Republicans weekly with voters unhappy about gas prices, the war in Iran, tariffs, and President Donald Trump’s vanity projects. President Trump’s job approval has sunk to 37-38 percent, with little on the next four weeks’ horizon to lift Republican prospects.

If the election were held today, voters would put Democrats in the House majority. Democrats are pressing their advantage into districts President Trump won by 10 percent or more. The size of the Democrats’ prospective majority is limited by the small size of the House majority and gerrymandered districts.

The Senate battlefield is more vigorously contested, with at least seven seats within the polling margin of error, five held by Republicans and two held by Democrats. Republicans are preparing to surrender their North Carolina seat to the Democrats. The Republican Senate seat in Kansas could soon fall into the toss-up category.

Incumbent Republicans from both chambers face a dilemma: distancing themselves from the President to win the votes of Independents risks the votes of base Trump supporters. The President has ignored a few candidates who have broken with him, mostly on the Iran war, but scolded others who have spoken ill of him, such Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Republicans desperately want the Iran war to end and the promised decline in fuel prices to begin. There is no sign of a breakthrough toward peace. The President is deploying an additional 9,000 troops and another aircraft carrier to the region, preparing for a resumption of hostilities, perhaps more complicated and intense, after the election.

Global interest rates continue to rise, creating an economic squeeze Washington will have to confront sooner than later.