Since becoming the Democratic candidate for president on July 21, Vice President Kamala Harris has executed a near flawless campaign and nominating convention. She has surpassed Republican nominee Donald Trump in the national polls, fundraising, crowd size, volunteer recruitment and favorability. Harris leads nationally by about 2.5 percentage points but needs to build a cushion of 4 percent to be able to win in the Electoral College. Today, Trump leads Harris in 5 of the 7 battleground Electoral College states.
Harris’ success is built on her authentic personality, not being Joe Biden, and by deflecting Trump’s attacks by mocking them. Trump has yet to execute an effective counter-Harris strategy, resorting instead to personal attacks. Voters rate Trump higher on his ability to handle the economy, the Gaza war and the border – offering him an issue path to putting Harris on the defensive. Harris is trusted more on health care, race relations, abortion, and gun violence.
Inevitably, political tides turn. The streak of Harris successes will meet adversity, and how she responds to her first campaign crisis may well determine the race’s outcome. The next test on the schedule is the September 10 presidential debate, but as has been demonstrated throughout the campaign, disorder can strike at any moment.
Democratic improvement at the top of the ticket will benefit some congressional candidates, with Republicans favored to win the Senate majority and a House campaign too close to call.
Amid a steady but slowing economy, the Federal Reserve is almost certain to cut interest rates in September, with most analysts predicting a reduction of 0.25 percent, although worsening data could prompt a 0.5 percent cut. Lower rates would ease some of the strain that the Federal Reserve’s restrictive policies have placed on the economy, especially for business, household and mortgage borrowers.
