During his first 100 days as President, Donald Trump spent most of his political capital on executive orders, many of which have been sidelined by the courts for exceeding his constitutional authority. In his next 100 days, the President must invest in congressional action before his capital runs out.
Three major items require his focus: the reconciliation bill to reduce spending and cut taxes; annual appropriations to cut spending further; and a debt ceiling increase. Last week’s decision to postpone a $9.3 billion appropriation recission measure suggests the reconciliation bill’s spending cuts, especially for Medicaid, may lack the nearly unanimous Republican support needed to be enacted. It is hard to conceive congressional Republicans failing to extend the 2017 tax cuts, but the rest of the reconciliation package could fall flat. How Republicans would then increase the debt ceiling is anyone’s guess.
President Trump sent Congress a budget last week outlining his proposals for about one-quarter of the government that would increase military spending 13 percent while reducing domestic discretionary spending 23 percent. The proposal was met with bipartisan congressional hostility, forecasting another imperiled appropriations cycle.
The next 100 days is also likely to feature increasing White House disputes with the judicial branch. The list of executive orders and actions that have been struck down or partially halted by the courts is long and growing, prompting explosive rhetoric from President Trump and veiled, but not yet overt, circumvention of judicial orders.
The economic forecast is mixed. Job growth in April was solid, but the economy shrunk 0.3 percent in the first quarter, mostly because of the President’s tariff trade war. In the next 100 days, the Administration will have to reach bilateral trade deals to quell the markets (which have recovered losses since Liberation Day) and make plain its strategy and end game in its battle with China.
