Since the October 1 lapse in government appropriations, President Donald Trump’s approval rating has been steady around 43 percent. Democrats have maintained a generic congressional ballot advantage over Republicans of about 2 percent. After all the blame casting and partisan attacks, there is little evidence either party is winning or losing the government shutdown. Congress as a whole is losing: the Gallup poll shows Congress’ job approval has sunk from 26 to 15 percent in the past month with a sharp decline in Republican support.
The parade of other shutdown losers is growing. Absent action by President Donald Trump to force congressional approval of a government funding bill, most government employees will have missed or soon will miss a full paycheck, contractors’ work is going unpaid or delayed, and some government programs – such as nutrition support – are ending.
In past shutdowns, the President and congressional leaders were working to identify a compromise to restore appropriations. Monday, President Trump is in Asia, the Senate votes for the 13th time on the same failed, temporary funding bill, and the House remains out of town for five weeks straight. There are no public indications that anyone in Washington is seriously negotiating to find a solution, probably because partisans believe their side is winning. No one wins a shutdown.
Given the political statis, it seems some external forcing mechanism will be required to make Congress and the President act. This could be widespread public alarm about the disruption of services or an international crisis. In one prior shutdown, air traffic controllers refusing to show up for work without pay, disrupting air travel, contributed to congressional motivation to compromise.
The economy seems stable with weakening employment and slightly rising inflation, but without substantial data to show the shutdown’s economic damage, the economy seems an unlikely factor to motivate action by the President and Congress.
