With about a week until Election Day and nearly 40 million votes cast early, the race for President between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is tied nationally and in the key battleground states. A barely discernable trend could be in of favor Trump, but it is so small that it may be well be oscillation.
Given the margin of error in polling, it is possible either candidate could win by 3 or 4 percentage points nationally and sweep the swing states. It is also possible the Electoral College vote could end in a tie, handing the election to the House of Representatives to vote by state delegation – almost certainly electing Donald Trump.
It is not possible to accurately predict which party will win control of the House majority. It is likely the Republicans will win a Senate majority, although a couple of surprise outcomes could upset the forecast.
In the past week, both presidential campaigns have emphasized strongly negative messages about their opponents; positive advertising has almost disappeared. Harris and the Democrats have spent millions of dollars accusing Trump of being unfit to serve as president and further imperiling reproductive rights. Trump and Republicans have spent millions accusing Harris of favoring the rights of transgender prisoners and immigrants over others.
At this point in a campaign, negative advertising is usually a tactic to dissuade voters who are undecided, or unsure they will vote, from participating in the election. In this instance, it seems the campaigns are using abortion and transgender rights to rile up their supporters to increase turnout.
It is often the case that campaigns will return to positive, uplifting advertisements in the days just prior to the election. A return to positive messaging seems unlikely this year.
It remains unclear which campaign, if either, has a superior organization for turning out the vote.
