Since Joe Biden departed the presidential race when he was three or four points behind Trump in the national polls and losing all the swing states, Kamala Harris has established a three- or four-point advantage nationally over Donald Trump. In the key swing states, the race is essentially tied. To win the Electoral College, Trump needs to stay within three points nationally, Harris needs to expand her lead.
The Harris campaign is campaigning in swing state areas that favor Trump, seeking to cut their margins of loss, signaling confidence in their ability to turn out their urban-suburban vote. Two months ago, Trump was campaigning in Democratic strongholds but has begun focusing on Republican areas.
Harris escaped an error last week, conducting her first media interview – made riskier by delay – without making substantial mistakes or news. Trump erred by muddying his stance on abortion last week, saying he might support a Florida ballot measure that would expand abortion access, then stating his opposition.
The Trump campaign is working to execute a strategy to make Harris a second term of Joe Biden, saddling her with the failures voters associate with his presidency: inflation, the border and a world on fire. Their execution has been flawed. For example, Trump’s trip to Arlington National Cemetery was meant to emphasize Harris’ role in the withdrawal from Afghanistan but it did not achieve the goal because of flouting cemetery rules and a staff altercation with an Arlington employee. The flawed execution permits Harris to continue to portray herself as a fresh face.
The September 10 debate gives both campaigns an opportunity to change the knotted status quo, marking the beginning of the next phase of the race.
Consumer sentiment is improving slightly as economic data brightens, pointing to an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve this month.
